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Climate change will kill 14.5 million people globally by 2050 — but mostly not directly
A recent report also projects $12.5 trillion in economic losses and $1.1 trillion in healthcare costs by midcentury.
Climate change is triggering a global health crisis that may approach the death toll of some of history’s deadliest plagues. Unlike the 1918 flu epidemic or the COVID-19 pandemic, which were caused by the widespread outbreak of one type of bacteria or virus, climate change-fueled illness is a Hydra-headed challenge that erodes human health on multiple distinct fronts. Efforts are underway to tally this risk, and a growing body of research indicates that climate-related health threats, such as cardiovascular, diarrheal, and vector-borne diseases, have already killed millions of people — a count that will grow steeper as warming accelerates.
A recent report from the World Economic Forum, a non-governmental organization that promotes public-private partnership on global issues, and Oliver Wyman, a consulting firm, projects that rising temperatures will “place immense strain on global healthcare systems” in the coming years. Climate change will cause 14.5 million additional deaths by 2050, the report says, and spur $12.5 trillion in economic losses. Healthcare systems — hospitals, emergency rooms, doctors, and nurses — will also have to provide an extra $1.1 trillion worth of treatment by mid-century because of climate change.
These challenges will be felt most acutely in the Global South, where healthcare resources are already limited and governments lack the capacity to respond to cascading climate impacts such as worsening floods, heat waves, and storms. According to the report, central Africa and southern Asia are two regions that are particularly vulnerable to the overlap of intensifying climate health threats and limited resources.
“Climate change is transforming the landscape of morbidity and mortality,” the report says. “The most vulnerable populations, including women, youth, elderly, lower-income groups, and hard-to-reach communities, will be the most affected by climate-related consequences.”
As the lawsuit plays out in the court system, energy providers are experimenting with how to decarbonize the islands’ aviation system — a vast and complicated problem that lacks substitute fuel options, environmental consultants noted in the Hawaiian Electric report. This question is pivotal as Hawaiʻi’s economy is driven by tourism fueled by air travel.
The state’s largest air carrier, Hawaiian Airlines, and its refinery, Par Hawaiʻi LLC, partnered to study the commercial viability of “locally produced sustainable aviation fuels — to replace all or a percentage of traditional kerosene-based jet fuel.”
Jet fuel makes up a larger share of the state’s consumption — about two-fifths of all petroleum products — than of any other except Alaska, federal statistics show.
For millions of tourists landing at Oʻahu’s Daniel K. Inouye International Airport each year, taking an airplane is the only feasible way to reach the island — although not at all the cleanest.
In total, the report identified six weather events most likely to trigger negative health outcomes: floods, droughts, wildfires, sea-level rise, tropical storms, and heat waves. The authors examined the direct and indirect effects of each of these events.
The burden of indirect impacts far outweighed the direct effects. For example, floods can trigger landslides that injure and kill people during or directly after a flood occurs. But the longer-term consequences of flooding kill more people. Floods eat away at coastlines, damage infrastructure, and kill crops, which in turn contribute to the expansion of mosquito habitat, increase moisture and humidity in the air, and fuel food insecurity. Infectious diseases, respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, and mental health issues follow. The report predicts that the greatest health consequences of extreme rainfall and flooding in central Africa and Southeast Asia, two of the regions that face the worst effects of climate-driven flooding, will be malaria and post-traumatic stress disorder, respectively. The economic impact of these illnesses and other flood-related health issues will top $1.6 trillion.
A New Solution to Power Africa: Productive Use of Renewable Energy
Access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa has improved tremendously over the last decade, reaching 49.4% of the population in 2022, up from 33% in 2010. Yet, while electricity access has grown, electricity consumption has not.
While this would be considered a good thing in much of the world, for Africa, it is a discouraging indicator of lagging economic development. Despite growing access, per capita consumption of electricity (excluding South Africa) still averages only 124 kilowatt-hours (kWh) a year. This is roughly equivalent to the energy needed to power three light bulbs in a household for about a month.
These statistics reveal a significant development dilemma: Access to electricity is meaningless if customers can’t afford to pay for it.
Take Kenya, for example, where about 78% of rural earners receive about $38 in monthly income. The current cost of electricity (Ksh. 31.75 ($0.20) per kWh) remains significantly higher than they can afford. And while this low electricity use holds back individual households, it also hampers greater expansion of electricity access. If utilities and renewable energy developers aren’t generating sufficient revenues from the sale of electricity, they won’t invest in installing more mini grids or further expanding the grid.
Fixing Africa’s Electricity Access-Consumption Mismatch: Productive Use of Renewable Energy
In part, Africa’s electricity expansion effort is undercut by well-meaning governments, non-profits and others targeting households, schools and health clinics — operations with low budgets and relatively low electricity demand. Some of these consumers may go months without using any electricity at all simply because it is too costly. What if in addition to directing energy at households, governments, impact investors and development financing institutions invested in expanding energy-intensive services and boosting local incomes so people can better afford electricity? This is the idea behind the Productive Use of Renewable Energy (PURE) concept.
Productive Use of Renewable Energy, or PURE, invests in expanding access to energy in areas that help generate more revenue for rural communities, while spurring demand for clean electricity. Done right, PURE is a virtuous cycle that not only boosts clean electricity use, but supports low-carbon economic growth, creates employment opportunities for growing youth populations, and increases income for rural communities.
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The promise and the perils of Hawaiʻi’s renewable energy revolution
The closer the state gets to reaching its groundbreaking clean energy goals, the harder it will be to achieve them.
Alert visitors flying into Honolulu’s international airport might spot row after row of suburban rooftops covered with twinkling solar panels. Once they disembark, they can hail an electric vehicle plied by an Uber driver. Traversing the town’s west side, they can ogle the elevated Skyline, Hawaiʻi’s controversial electric-powered light rail.
It marks a sharp contrast to what they can see to the southeast: tankers floating in azure waters that deliver more than a billion gallons of crude oil annually at an offshore terminal.
This island — like so many others in the Pacific Ocean — is on the front lines of climate change. But unlike most others, it is carving out a place at the vanguard of a renewable energy revolution by leading the decarbonization of what has long been the most oil-dependent U.S. state.
In 2015, state legislators became the first in the nation to require electric utilities to generate power almost entirely from renewable energy and to mandate that the economy make enormous progress in leaving carbon-based fuels behind — both by 2045. That was a tall order in a state that has historically produced the lion’s share of its electricity from oil and coal, in addition to its heavy consumption of gasoline and airplane fuel.
Today, Hawaiʻi leads the nation in the amount of rooftop solar installed per person, far ahead of second and third place states, Massachusetts and California. The archipelago is on track to hit a 2030 milestone by generating 40 percent of its electricity from renewables — a stark contrast from 20 years earlier, when about 90 percent came from burning petroleum and even more polluting coal. The state ranks third for the highest level of electric vehicle adoption, behind California and Washington. Hawaiʻi also shuttered its last remaining coal plant in 2022.
“Rooftop solar is our number one success story,” said Issac Moriwake, managing attorney for Earthjustice’s Mid-Pacific regional office. “It jumpstarted our renewable energy growth and also captured the public’s imagination” of what’s possible.
Yet as it approaches the 10-year anniversary of the first of its pioneering climate laws, which requires utilities to produce virtually all of their power from renewables by 2045, the nation’s fiftieth state faces an energy reckoning that requires tough tradeoffs as it works toward its carbon-free goal.
An April report commissioned by the islands’ largest utility, Hawaiian Electric, warned that reaching an interim target of slashing fossil-fuel emissions in half across the state by 2030 will be challenging because gas-powered vehicles and machinery won’t suddenly disappear. Long-term investments will take years to pay off, allowing older equipment to keep polluting. And despite ongoing research on how to best electrify air travel, its infrastructure is all but certain to be based on petroleum products for the foreseeable future.
Former Governor David Ige, an engineer who helped shepherd the state’s groundbreaking clean energy goals, said during a climate conference in Honolulu on an unseasonably warm October day, “We became the first state to commit to a carbon negative future — it’s about transforming our energy systems throughout our communities, and we’ve made tremendous strides to meet those goals. Now we need to step on the gas, big time.”
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Sustainable Investment Soars in the Energy Transition
The Energy Transition Investment Trends 2024 report by BloombergNEF (BNEF) has revealed that global investment in the low-carbon energy transition reached $1.77 trillion in 2023, marking a remarkable 17% surge.
This rise not only represents a new pinnacle in annual investment but also signifies a pivotal moment in the global shift towards sustainable practices. Let's delve into the report's key findings and explore the driving forces behind this surge in sustainable investments.
Electric Transport Takes the Lead:
A standout highlight from the report is the exponential growth of electric transport, now standing as the largest sector in the energy transition. With a staggering 36% increase in 2023, reaching $634 billion, this sector encompasses a spectrum of investments, including electric cars, buses, two- and three-wheelers, commercial vehicles, and associated infrastructure. This surge reflects a collective commitment to reduce carbon emissions in the transportation sector, paving the way for cleaner and more sustainable mobility solutions.
Renewable Energy Sector's Resilience:
The renewable energy sector continues to be a resilient and crucial contributor to the energy transition. Despite global challenges, investments in this sector witnessed an 8% increase, totalling $623 billion. This includes investments in wind, solar, geothermal power plants, and biofuel production plants. The emphasis on constructing sustainable energy production facilities underscores the commitment to reducing reliance on traditional energy sources and embracing cleaner alternatives.
Power Grids - The Enablers of Transition:
Power grid investment emerged as the third-largest contributor, totalling $310 billion. Acknowledging the critical role grids play as enablers for the energy transition, the report emphasises the need for increased investment in this area in the coming years. Robust and adaptive power grids are pivotal for integrating renewable energy sources and facilitating a seamless transition to a sustainable energy landscape.
Surge in Emerging Areas:
The report showcases robust growth in emerging areas such as hydrogen, experiencing a tripling of investment year on year, carbon capture and storage nearly doubling, and energy storage witnessing a significant 76% increase. These burgeoning sectors underscore a dynamic shift towards innovative technologies and solutions that hold the key to achieving sustainable energy goals.
Global Investment Landscape:
China retained its dominance in global sustainable investment, contributing $676 billion in 2023, equivalent to 38% of the global total. However, the collective investment from the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom surpassed China, reaching $718 billion. The United States, in particular, saw a substantial 22% year-on-year increase, reaching $303 billion, propelled by the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Seventeen landfills in England make toxic liquid hazardous to drinking water
Exclusive: Investigation finds banned chemicals at levels up to 260 times higher than that deemed safe to consume
Seventeen landfills across England are known to be producing a highly toxic liquid substance containing some banned and potentially carcinogenic “forever chemicals”, in some cases at levels 260 times higher than that deemed safe for drinking water, it can be revealed.
However the government says it does not know where these landfills are.
Over a 10-month period from 2021 to 2022, consultants working for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Environment Agency were asked to take samples from a “number of different operational and closed landfills” developed between the 1960s and the present day in order to provide an “overall picture” of the chemical substances found in the landfills’ leachate.
The results of the sampling, published in an Ends Report investigation and shared with the Guardian, reveal that in one landfill, the total sum of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the raw leachate sample was 105,910 nanograms a litre (ng/l).
PFAS are a group of about 10,000 human-made chemicals used in industrial processes, firefighting foams and consumer products. They are known as “forever chemicals” owing to their persistence in the environment.
In England there are no restrictions on the total sum of PFAS allowed in drinking water, but the Drinking Water Inspectorate’s guidelines allow levels of PFOS and PFOA – two of the most widely used and studied types of PFAS – in drinking water at up to 100 ng/l. In the US, the legal limit is 0.004ng/l for PFOA and 0.02 ng/l for PFOS.
In one sample PFOA was recorded at 26,900 ng/l – 260 times higher than the current guidance for safe levels in drinking water in England.
PFOA is considered to be toxic above certain levels and has been linked to a range of diseases in humans including kidney cancer, testicular cancer, hypertension, thyroid disease, ulcerative colitis, high cholesterol and reduced response to vaccines.
According to the Environment Agency’s own definition, landfill leachate is a “potentially polluting liquid” which “unless managed and eventually returned to the environment in a carefully and controlled manner, may cause harmful effects on the groundwater and surface water that surround a landfill site”.
Although the quantities of PFAS found in each sample varied – with the lowest total recorded being 79 ng/l – the average across all the samples was 19,497 ng/l.
The data provided to Ends revealing the high levels of PFAS in the landfill leachate did not include location information, meaning it is not possible to assess their potential to contaminate drinking water sources.
When queried, the Environment Agency and Defra said they did not know the locations of these landfills because the contractors provided the government with an anonymised dataset.
This, they said, was because the purpose of the study was to “build an initial nationwide (England) picture of substances in landfill leachate that are known to be or suspected to be harmful to the environment”. They said the “study was not intended to carry out monitoring for the purpose of compliance regulations”.
An Environment Agency spokesperson said none of the landfills assessed “found this leachate being discharged directly into the environment”. They added that the agency was “working closely with the landfill industry to deepen our understanding of chemicals and any challenges they pose”.
“This is a hugely important study that is now informing our longer-term approach to managing risks to the environment. Defra will be publishing a report in due course.
“The Environment Agency wants to provide government with really compelling advice, fully evidenced, on the scale of the PFAS challenge and how it may be dealt with. This study is a very useful first step but more work is essential.
“The research is not intended as regulatory monitoring – as such the names and site locations were not required for this particular work, which was carried out by a contractor on our behalf.”
